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Analysis Of The Impact Of Trade Wars On Different Industries
Nov 06, 2018

Trade frictions between China and the United States, starting with the imposition of tariffs on each other, have spread to all areas of investment and trade, with a general trend of escalation.In this context, China in the first three quarters of GDP grew by 6.7% year on year, quarter, year-on-year growth of 6.8% in the first quarter, second quarter year-on-year growth of 6.7%, year-on-year growth of 6.5% in the third quarter, the economic operation in a reasonable range, present the stability and stability in the slow, steady change in the situation, as the 6.5% annual economic growth goal smooth realization to create a solid foundation;In terms of industries, the first, second and third quarters of the first three quarters saw year-on-year growth of 3.6 percent, 5.3 percent and 7.9 percent, among which the growth and decrease in key representative industries were different.

Growth in emerging industries accelerated.Among industrial enterprises above designated size, the value-added of high-tech industries, equipment manufacturing industries and strategic emerging industries increased by 11.8%, 8.6% and 8.8%, respectively, significantly higher than the 6.4% growth of all industries above designated size.In recent years, the growing strength of national security review of foreign investment, in August of this year to strengthen the U.S. bill of rights by foreign investment committee, released on October 10, the foreign investment risk assessment modernization act pilot program regulations further tightening of key technology of foreign investment, including aircraft manufacture, computer and television and semiconductor equipment and biotechnology research and development companies, etc., the serious influence of Chinese enterprises, especially the science and technology enterprises expand overseas, seriously affect the technological progress and human capital.

The capacity utilization rate of traditional heavy industry keeps high.In the third quarter, coal mining and washing industry capacity utilization rate was 70.1%, the oil and gas industry is 89.3%, non-metallic mineral products was 71.3%, 78.7% black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry is 78.8%, capacity utilization rate are improved than the same period last year, to the productivity effect, considering the winter limit production factors, capacity utilization in the future is expected to fall.

In terms of automobile industry, the sales volume of automobile industry in the third quarter was poor, mainly due to factors such as the large sales base in previous years, insufficient consumer confidence and the decline of macroeconomic growth rate.According to the statistics of China association of automobile manufacturers and sales, from July to September, automobile production and sales declined continuously year on year, and the decline speed is expanding.From January to September, the production and sales volume of automobiles completed 20,491,000 units, and the production and sales volume increased by only 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Considering that the production and sales volume has been declining for three months in a row, the production and sales volume of automobiles will probably show negative growth this year.China-us economic and trade friction impact on auto industry depends on the structure of automobile trade of China and the United States, China's imports from the United States is mainly for vehicle and some key parts such as transmission device, China mainly exports the United States is aftermarket parts, China's vehicle exports the United States is less, so in the short term, the vehicle sales, imports from the United States the cost of imported components will be affected.In the long run, opportunities and risks coexist, which will affect consumers' confidence and force China's auto industry to innovate independently.

In the real estate sector, the national investment in real estate development reached 8866.5 billion yuan in january-september 2018, up 9.9% year-on-year, up by 0.2 percentage points faster than the first half of the year, and down by 0.2 percentage points from January to August.The sales area of commercial housing reached 1193.13 million square meters, up by 2.9% year-on-year, down by 1.1 percentage points from January to August.At the end of September, there were 531.91 million square meters of unsold homes, down 6.82 million square meters from the end of August.Data on the sales price of newly built residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September showed that prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and shenzhen were slightly lower, while prices of newly built residential buildings in other cities rose at different rates (except for jinhua).Tightening is regulated by the real estate market, real estate taxes are expected, the real estate market consolidation factors, such as the property market hot scene began to cool, even some well-known real estate developers began to disguised price, investors withdrew FangWeiQuan events are occurring, overall "house is used to live, not to fry" guide is more and more obvious, and the effect is more and more significant.

In the energy industry, energy supply capacity has been steadily improved.From January to September, the output of raw coal was 2.59 billion tons, up 5.1% year-on-year.Crude oil production declined, with output of 141.13 million tons from January to September, down 1.9% year on year.Natural gas production continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, with natural gas output of 116.2 billion cubic meters in the january-september period, up 6.2 percent year-on-year, providing a strong guarantee for the replacement of loose coal.In terms of power generation, affected by the weather and the Mid-Autumn festival holiday, the year-on-year growth rate of power generation in September was only 4.6%, and the growth rate from January to September was 0.3 percentage points lower than that from January to August.The power generation structure continued to be optimized, with the growth rate of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and solar power all falling back in September, while the year-on-year growth of wind power increased by 13.5%.

In conclusion, the sensitivity of the change of policy environment at home and abroad on the different, each have different performance in the third quarter, the key representative industry continue to upgrade traditional industry, the new economy booming, the steady development of real estate industry and automobile industry stagnated, energy security is enough, for the overall macroeconomic in maintaining stability, steady quality laid a solid foundation.In the context of china-us economic and trade frictions, we should step up efforts to implement the "six stabilizations" policy, further deepen reform, advance high-level opening-up, continue to release the dividends of reform and opening-up, optimize the business environment in all aspects, activate private investment, and effectively hedge against the adverse effects of external uncertainties.




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